Strengthening regulations will increase crypto investors’ protection, and the amateur speculation bubble will end, says Masayuki Tashiro, representative director of Fiscalo Digital Asset Group and market analyst, who handles a crypto business in Japan. The real value of cryptocurrency will be questioned after we leave the bubble, the expert says.
Is the Cryptocurrency Market Heading to Maturity?
The overall excitement and confusion around cryptocurrency in Japan is over as regulations had been strengthened. In many ways the environment surrounding Bitcoin has changed dramatically this year. Last December, the highest value for 1 BTC was 2.5 million yen (22,500$), then in January it dropped by more than half, at 700,000 yen (6,300$), when on January 26th, 58 billion yen (520 million$) worth of cryptocurrency Nem (NEM) went missing from Coincheck, a local exchange.
“The overheating feeling around cryptocurrency that went on until the beginning of the year was just a bubble,” Masayuki Tashiro said. Right after the Coincheck heist, Japan’s Financial Security Agency (FSA) took immediate measures in February and raided the company and other crypto exchanges to find out what was going on. Then six companies including the major registrants received heavy administrative sanctions in June. BTC price then fell to 600,000 yen (5,400$). Currently the price of one BTC is about 800,000 yen (7,200$), but it is a situation that is changing around all the time, the market analyst pointed out.
Real Value of Crypto Will Show After the Bubble Is Over
The real value of crypto will show after the bubble is over, the expert says. As the Coincheck management apologized during a press conference in Tokyo last January for failing to keep the cryptocurrency, its overall price dropped dramatically and the trend to regulate cryptocurrency accelerated drastically. “Futures traders in the US launching the BTC futures trading market last December also influenced the situation a lot. And those futures hedge funders entered the market as a tide, all at once, that influenced the bubble to burst too,” Tashiro explained, “the more the price falls, the more people tend to sell. And the biggest factor for the bubble bursting is the actions taken by beginners who don’t have the experience of investing in crypto,” he added.
“To begin with, there aren’t any investment measures with crypto such as PER (Price Earnings Ratio) and PBR (Price Book-value Ratio) as we see with stocks, so people shouldn’t touch upon it if they don’t understand it. Without any solid understanding, newbies shouldn’t have gotten involved in crypto,” Tashiro explained. Japan’s crypto industry has established a self regulatory association called the Japan Cryptocurrency Exchange Association in April, which is prospecting to set up self-regulatory rules by October. Rules and regulations around crypto have been strengthened globally, and the overall crypto boom seems to have dissipated.
Crypto Is Still a Remarkable Market
“Strengthening the rules is a good move,” the analyst said, “people will be able to invest with peace in their mind as the poor quality crypto vendors will exit and a strong anti-money laundering system will be put in place internally within each exchange,” Tashiro says. “Furthermore, last year BTC price rose by more than 40% twice,” he explained, “this is the same figure as the Nikkei average during the Lehman shock. In the near future, although we might not reach that high, we can still expect a rise in the range of 800,000 yen (7,200$). Although the price range at the moment is around 30,000 to 40,000 yen (270 to 360$), a rise always occurs, that’s why [crypto] is still a remarkable market.” Regarding future market trends, “personally I am bullish,” Tashiro said, “and by the time the outline of the regulations will come together in October, those investors who will feel safer will come back. I hope things won’t get as overheated as last year, but I believe BTC can win back the value of 1 million yen (9,020$) in range,” he believes.
The bubble which attracted or was caused by amateur investors is over, and the reinforcement of regulation is a rather securing outcome from the perspective of investors’ protection in the cryptocurrency market. From this Japanese expert’s point of view, it seems that there is still room for earning in crypto.